Failures in memories of strategic thinking

Apparently it has been too long since conference (almost two months!) and I’ve forgotten what was said about the seventh flaw in strategic thinking – herding instinct?  The problem with going along with the herd?  Making decisions that will keep the herd together and get them to fall in line?  Anyone help me out here?

I do remember the last one – mis-estimating.  We all like to reminisce about the good old days, and we tend to remember it as better than it really was.  I thought mis-estimating would only be about how we are over-confident and optimistic, but she said that future states are never as good OR AS BAD as we expected.  Perhaps the point was that the future in unpredictable, but if it’s not as bad or as good how can we ever expect to estimate correctly?  I guess you do the best you can and if you keep metrics that help you be more realistic.  Have any of you figured out the tricks to producing good estimates that you can actually deliver against?  Do tell!